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MH370 mystery
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redbean



Joined: 07 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject: MH370 mystery Reply with quote

The mysterious disappearance of MH370
There are many theories regarding the disappearance of MH370. The aircraft was flying a normal route from KL to Beijing and nothing untoward is expected. It was a routine commercial flight. It took off and was in contact with the Malaysian air traffic control until prior to the handover to Vietnam’s air traffic control when radio and radar contact were lost. Malaysian sources claimed that their radar showed that the aircraft was turning back before it disappeared.
In normal cases of aircraft developing engine trouble, the pilot would have time to contact air traffic control or send out emergency signal. The absence of distress signal indicates that the pilot did not have the time to do so, for whatever reasons. What could these reasons be, an explosion, no one in the cockpit to trigger the distress signal or the pilot was restrained from doing so.
The question then is, how could the aircraft disappear from radar contact? And the transponder was not on or switched off too? Without radar contact means it was not there or had descended quickly to be out of radar envelop. This possibility could mean that the aircraft has been hijacked and went low level to escape radar detection…and a glimmer of hope that it would appear somewhere.
The fact that no debris was found so far is a good sign that the aircraft did not crash into the sea. Even with an air explosion, there must be plenty of pieces floating in the sea. An aircraft of that size cannot plunge into the sea in one piece unless it successfully dived to sea level before entry into the water. In that case the pilot would have time to make an emergency call.
And the black boxes are not transmitting location signals. It is very unlikely that the two boxes would be quiet if an accident had happened. This added to the mystery. Could the aircraft still be around somewhere after being hijacked by professionals who knew how to fly the aircraft outside of radar coverage and landed somewhere, intact, in one piece? The aircraft has enough fuel to fly to Beijing and thus could be flown to another destination as well.
The crash or explosion theory is not confirmed by the absence of debris and the transmissions from the black boxes. The Malaysian report of the aircraft turning back indicated that the aircraft had changed course. Could it make a turn and a steep dive to low level and flown to another destination under the radar cover? As long as no debris is found, the probability of the aircraft in one piece somewhere cannot be ruled out. Just a possibility until a crash is confirmed.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – No news is good news

To all those who are suffering from having loved ones in the flight MH370, the waiting for news on what really happened to the aircraft and the fate of the passengers is like a living nightmare. Every moment, every second is pain and agony. In despair and desperation, let there be hope. As long as there is no confirmation that the aircraft had crashed or exploded in mid air, as long as there is no evidence of any debris in the sea or on land, there is a possibility that the aircraft is safe somewhere with all its passengers and crew.

The possibility of the aircraft being hijacked and flown to an unknown destination cannot be ruled out, until such a time when the wreckage is found and confirmed. Let me hazard to try to create a possible scenario of what could have happened given the sparse information available. This is just a theory and could be proven totally wrong when the truth is out. Assuming that this is a hijack, it is a very professional job done with meticulous planning and expertise in aviation knowledge.

At the moment many have in mind that this is likely to be the works of the Uighurs or the same group of people that struck at Kunming Railway Station. I would like to differ from this view given the complexities of this operation that is showing all the signs of familiarity in the operations of air traffic, flight path, aircraft and radar performances. The people involved in this operation cannot be unsophisticated Uighurs, or if indeed committed by them, they must have received professional training and technical support from experts in insurgency. And there are a handful of western expert organisations that could conduct this operation the way it was done.

The first point to note is the location where the aircraft went missing. It was at the edges of both Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control zones and also at the limits of their radar coverage. It was like a no man’s land or space. The second point is that the aircraft could fly east or west in airspace that are not under radar surveillance. The western route would be the Gulf of Thailand and at the fringes of Malaysia and Bangkok air traffic control zones. Towards the east into the South China Sea is wide open space, away from Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines air traffic control zones. The aircraft could fly at normal cruise level undetected. The third point is the lost of RT and radar contact in almost an instance, indicating that it was likely a deliberate act to get out of radar surveillance, to shake loose it trails, and this could only be done by diving down and flying low level. This is a reflection of the intimate knowledge of radar performance and how to avoid radar surveillance. Once out of radar range, the aircraft could then return to its cruising flight level and on its way unknown to anyone. Fourth, the fact that it broke away just an hour from take off meant that it would have another 5 to 6 hours of fuel left and can fly off to a chosen destination quite a distance away, a lot of room to play with. The islands in southern Philippines look very attractive.

What could happen inside the MH 370 prior to the hijacking could be the most unsuspecting to the crew members. The hijackers could put the crew at ease with things familiar and lower their guards before crashing into the cockpit and immediately restrained the pilot and co pilot. They could even be invited and shown around the cockpit if they could win the confidence of the crew members. Taken by surprise, the pilot and co pilot had no chance to send out any distress signal and became captives of the hijackers.

At this point there were two possibilities. The hijackers could have been trained to fly the aircraft and simply took control from the pilot. Alternatively, the pilot could be under duress to do as the hijackers wished, and flew the aircraft as commanded. And the aircraft disappeared from the radars of Malaysia and Vietnam, destination unknown, but safe.

The intent of this hijacking is still unclear but could be narrowed down to a few possibilities. One obvious objective is to make demands from China by the separatist group in Xinjiang. This is top in the list of speculations. It is less likely to be targeting Malaysia as the dominant active terrorist groups are not hostile to Malaysia at this moment. It could also be groups that are supported by state agencies that are hostile to China and intent to give China some severe headache to deal with.

Hopefully this is the scenario and the passengers and crew are still safe and sound and waiting for the next chapter of this drama to unfold. And this could be the most optimistic picture for those hoping that their loved ones are still alive. Would there be any announcement from a terrorist group to confirm that this is indeed what the whole mystery is all about? Any other scenario would likely be a confirmation of an unfolding tragedy.

Let there be hope that things could still turn out not as bad as it is now. The fact that the black boxes of MH370 are not beeping is a good sign that all is well. This is just an imagination of what could have happened but could be furthest from the truth.

Pray all is well.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Why radars cannot see and where it could be?
The MH370 disappeared from radar contact about 120 nm East of Kota Baru. At this point in time there is still no trace of debris to confirm a crash or explosion and both possibilities could be ruled out. Other than the Bermuda TriangleTheory, my view is that the aircraft was likely to be hijacked. The fact that there was no radar contact means that it was deliberately flown under radar coverage to avoid detection and leaving no trails as to where it was heading. The other point to note is that none of the passengers could make a call out with their mobile phones, a sign that all their phones have been confiscated and they are under duress. Given these assumptions, my point is that the aircraft is hijacked by a team of professionals who knew exactly what they were doing and had a meticulous plan to fly the aircraft to a destination without being tracked or seen on radar.
How could the hijackers do it? How could they fly the aircraft without appearing on the radar screens of any radar or air traffic control stations? To do that the hijackers must have knowledge of the locations of all the radars in the region. The commercial radars of air traffic control towers are in Kota Baru, Penang/Butterworth, Bangkok, Phuket and Ho Chi Minh City. There could be some military radar stations in the area which I am not familiar with. The radars in the south would be Singapore and to the east would be in Sabah, Brunei and Manila.
Given the presence of these radars and putting aside the unknown military radar stations, the hijackers must chart a course from its last known position to their planned destination without entering a radar zone. Two possible headings, 280 to the west or 100 to the east, would keep them out of the radars in Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City in the north and Penang/Butterworth and Kota Baru in the south.
The aircraft needed only to travel at below 10,000 ft in either direction for 30 minutes to be out of radar detection. Going west, however would not go far as the path would enter into Phuket if it tries to avoid Penang/Butterworth radars. The eastern flight path is safer, after 30 minutes heading 100, it could turn to 060 on a north easterly direction, climb to cruise level and fly for two hours while avoiding radars in Singapore and East Malaysia. The aircraft would have to turn to a south easterly direction if it were to avoid the radar in Manila. Assuming that the hijackers are muslims, just assuming, they are likely to head towards the southern islands in the Philippines where they could find friendly forces to accommodate them or their fellow hijackers awaiting them.
The above are just speculations of what the hijackers could do given where they were and where they could fly to, and to stay away from radar detection. This is one of many possible explanations why the MH370 could not be seen on radar other than a total eclipse due to a mid air explosion or sinking into the ocean. If this theory is proven right, MH370 is likely to be in the southern islands of the Philippines.
Just a theory, an educated guess.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – More misinformation
The more people questioned the information coming out from the Malaysian Govt, the more they corrected what they said and the more misinformation came forth as a result. The latest from General Rodzali Daud, ‘the military received signals on Saturday that, after the plane stopped communicating with ground controllers, it turned from heading north east to heading west, lowered its altitude and flew hundreds of kilometres across Peninsular Malaysia and over the Straits of Malacca before the tracking went blank.’
First point, under which radar was the aircraft tracked? Kota Bahru, KLIA or Butterworth? At the last spot quoted, none of the radars could pick up the aircraft signal. The second point is that if it were to head west from that point, it would be heading to the Isthmus of Kra, towards the direction of Phuket. It would not have been travelling hundreds of kilometers across Peninsular Malaysia unless it was heading southwest. Then it could possibly be picked up by KLIA if travelling at high altitude. If it was flying low, all the residents along its flight path would have been awaken by the noise it caused early in the morning.
What is the truth? Why all these misinformation?
Hishammuddin said Malaysia was transparent and had nothing to hide. Are they really not hiding anything? Could the aircraft have turned back and landed in Kota Bahru and they are negotiating with the hijackers all the time?
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redbean



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2014 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 and Mas Selamat similarities
When Mas Selamat disappeared from the detention centre, it was like falling out from the radar screen. Troops were activated to search the estates around Bukit Timah. And the search extended to all the parks in all corners of the island. The only area that was left untouched was the water catchment area around the reservoirs. Not a trace was found of the disappearing act.
MH370 had disappeared and all the searches were in the area around where it was last seen. This is perfectly logical on the assumption that it had crashed or exploded in mid air. Now these two possibilities have increasingly been written off and the theory of hijacking is gaining prominent. And the search started to cover a wider area and into the Straits of Malacca and Indian Ocean. And like Mas Selamat, the South China Sea is left practically untouched except for the vicinity of the last sighting. And like Mas Selamat, not a trace was found.
Both cases are like they have disappeared into thin air a la David Copperfield’s magic show. And there were even leads or false leads pointing towards the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca. Could the aircraft be sitting somewhere safe in Peninsula Malaysia or somewhere in the east, in the islands of Philippines?
When a crash is ruled out, the next logical thing is to look at the possible destination of the hijackers and how much fuel the aircraft had and how far this would take it to. It is likely to be an isolated or deserted location that has little human traffic or activities to conceal its presence. And by now, if this theory is to be true, the hostages would have been splitted into smaller groups and scattered in many safe houses very far apart to avoid detection or rescue by any task force.
The aircraft and the passengers/hostages could be like Mas Selamat, sitting safely somewhere by now.
PS. If the aircraft would to fly another 4 hours as rumoured, the destination is likely to be the Philippines.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Many questions to answer

At this point in time, all fingers are pointing to a hijack. This prompts many questions on how a hijack could take place. Presumably there must be a pretty big team of hijackers to be able to over power and control 239 passengers. And they must be heavily armed.

So, how could so many hijackers board the aircraft and were they in the passenger’s list, and went about unnoticed. Also, how could the firearms be smuggled into the aircraft? I am presuming they have firearms to be able to control so many passengers. Were they aided in some way by the ground crew? It is not easy to bring so many pieces of weapons on board.

And on Mar 8, when was the aircraft discovered to be missing, and what were really seen on the radar screen? Were they really detected on the radar screens, civilian air traffic radar or military radar? Could someone be telling lies and misleading everyone?

KLIA’s radar is unlikely to see the aircraft. Military radars could be off for the weekend or on skeleton crew, and in a relaxing mood as it is peace time and no intrusion is expected. It would be pure good luck for an operator sitting in front of a screen and watching all the happenings to MH370, a routine flight when there could be other civilian aircraft in the air.

What was real and what was speculation and misinformation?

While I was pondering over the above, I heard over the news that Najib had more or less confirmed that MH370 flew towards Penang and then northwest towards the Indian Ocean at about 29,000 ft. The information seemed to be confirmed and the aircraft actually was seen on military radar, probably one in Kota Bahru and then seen again by the radar in Butterworth. He also said that it was confirmed that someone deliberately switched of ACARS and the transponders in the aircraft.

What he did not say but implied was that the aircraft was deliberately flown to wherever it wanted to and to be seen on military radars and to be tracked. This is something that is contrary to the view that the aircraft was doing all it could to avoid being seen on radars. Over the last few days it was reported that the aircraft was not seen by radars at least from the spot when it last disappeared and all the way to Penang and only appeared over Pulau Perak. Now it is reported that it was seen flying from where it last disappeared, yes reported disappeared but was seen flying to Penang, tracked by military radar!

If the information is true, Malaysia is doing the right thing to search in the west and stop all searches in the South China Sea. But if the information was fake or misleading, it could be misled to search exactly away from where it should be searching.

Interviews with an ex FBI agent Steve Cutler and a Singaporean expert Paul Yap, both still believed that whoever was flying the aircraft he was trying to avoid radars. How to explain the new facts that the aircraft flew into the thick of radars in Penang and Butterworth and even seen by the one in Kota Bahru? They are now claiming to be seeing the aircraft all the while since it last disappeared or reported to have disappeared up to the Indian Ocean?

What is going on?
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redbean



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Misinformation and fuzzy logics

A few days after the disappearance of MH370 and the failure to locate any debris in the surrounding seas, the possibility of it being hijacked became very real. And the few evidences available pointed to a highly sophisticated team of hijackers who were doing everything they could to avoid detection by radars. And it took 6 fruitless days to discover nothing, absolutely nothing to tell anyone where it could have gone to.

Then on the 7th day after its disappearances there was a flood of information, even confirmed to be genuine, coming out to tell everyone a completely different story. The aircraft did not disappeared but was seen all over the sky and making all kinds of illogical manoeuvres to tell the world where it was and where it was going.

When such things happened, when logic becomes illogical, when the information made available, volunteered even by normally reliable sources, even by friendly sources, one must raise the antenna of doubt. If the information does not make sense, and telling some wild stories, one has to be suspicious and to question its validity and reliability.

Often information can be offered for the wrong reasons, mischief, misinformation, spurious, given under duress or circumstances that are unacceptable. And why, when this information was supposedly known, was not made known earlier and led so many nations on a wild goose chase in the South China Seas for almost a whole week?

The new information that was withheld and now made public include: Aircraft flying to 45,000 ft and descending to 23,000 ft. Aircraft flying to the west and under military radar screen. Aircraft flying at 29,500 ft and towards Penang into the centre of Butterworth and Penang radars with no attempt to hide its position. And subsequently aircraft flying towards the direction of India, presumably towards central Asia, where it would be seen by civilian and military radars. It was like the hijackers telling the whole world here I am, see, come and catch me. Why no longer trying to avoid radars?

All the information is saying that the first premise that the aircraft was manoeuvred to avoid radar detection is not true. The aircraft did not have that intention and was on the radar screens of military radars. Why didn’t the military raise an alarm and scramble fighters to intercept an unknown aircraft flying into Malaysian airspace? If it had hostile intention, it would have succeeded in whatever it wanted to do.

MH370 was claimed to have climbed to 45,000 ft when its max ceiling height is only 43,000 ft. It is not easy to fly an aircraft beyond its height ceiling. The pilot would have to fly it like a fighter aircraft, accelerate on descend to max speed and pull it up to hit a new high. A commercial aircraft doing such a manoeuvre would subject the fuselage to excessive stress and the wings could fall off. Is it believeable?

And the aircraft was happily flying into Penang and Butterworth radar zones at a height that it could not be missed. How ridiculous could this be? Are the hijackers suddenly became that stupid?

In my earlier posts though I mentioned a westerly route, 280 to avoid the Butterworth radars and staying at the verge of Phuket air traffic radar, I ruled this out as flying further would make it visible to radars in the west, unless it is hitting some deserted islands in the Indian Ocean. The best route to take is the easterly direction where there were no radars to pick it up on their screens.

The new information throws all the earlier premises into disarray. It suggests that the hijackers are likely to be associated with the Uighurs and their destination is central Asia. They could not fly there without being picked up and it was exactly that way, it was not picked up by anyone at the level they were supposed to be flying. They could not fly low level without burning out fuel for that kind of distance and not seen across India or countries in the region.

Najib spoke as if the latest information were gospel truths, unquestionable. Really? Could the information offered, that were concealed for so long, be misinformation, fabricated information or spurious information?
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redbean



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Explaining the bizarre, strange and questionables
The information flowing out from Malaysia over the weekend made many people saw red and at times shocking to know that Malaysia had the information but chose not to tell.
MH370 was seen and tracked by military radars. Why did Malaysia take so long to tell the world? And the Chief of Air Force General Daud was reported to have made a trip to Butterworth to find out what they saw on that fateful morning. It was also reported that there was a military radar at Kota Bahru. This fact is not confirmed. At the point where the plane disappeared, Butterworth was unlikely to have it on radar. Even if they were plotting it, they would have erased it off as it was going away, off their radar coverage. Why did the information came out so late?
Let me make a guess. Butterworth or whichever military station was stood down for the weekend or manned by a skeleton crew. And very likely all were ‘kooning’ or on a very relax mood and did not see anything or track anything. How embarrassing to admit that this was the case. So they need to piece together a story, that they saw and were tracking the aircraft from the moment it turned back and disappeared. But they did not know that this was discredited by the aircraft flying at normal height to be tracked all the way to Penang/Butterworth.
Why was the pilot flying to Penang/Butterworth to be seen on radar when he was trying to avoid it? One possible reason, he thought by switching off the transponder the air traffickers could not see the aircraft and he could fly anywhere and at any level he liked. Unfortunately, the radars used by the air traffickers could also see the blips even when the transponder was switched off, and the radar operated like any primary radar and picking up any aircraft in the air. The second reason, the pilot somehow became stupid that he did not know his flight path could be tracked by military radars. He did not know of the existence of military radars! This could not be as all experienced Malaysian pilots would know the existence of military radars in Malaysia.
Why fly towards Penang/Butterworth to be picked up by radars when his destination was Northwest? I dunno. Maybe he was mad. Maybe he wanted to show his face to the military radar controllers.
And the new theory, he was a political fanatic and decided to hijack the aircraft after attending Anwar’s trial. So he made up his mind to hijack an aircraft full of passengers in a fit of a moment. Did he plan anything, where to go and where to land? You don’t fly an aircraft like driving a car and could park anywhere. And if it was just the pilot who was angry and doing the flying, what about the second pilot and what about the rest of the crew? They could not be sitting there doing nothing. The passengers too would not be sitting idly by and let the pilot do whatever he wanted. They might not know anything. But the fact that none could send out a mobile message or attempted to was an indication that they were restrained or prevented from doing so. How could the pilot restrain 238 passengers alone?
Oh the decompression theory of flying to 45,000 ft. If I am not mistaken the aircraft cabin pressure is designed to maintain at a certain level, normally about 10,000 ft, independent of the height the aircraft was flying. There would be no decompression just by flying at 45,000 ft. When there is a decompression due to malfunction, the aircraft is designed to drop the oxygen masks for the passengers.
Anyone wiser?
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Another theory on where it could be
Many of you reading the media and its explanations on primary and secondary radars would get the impression that once the transponder is switched off, the radar would no longer see the aircraft. This is not true. The aircraft will still be on the radar screen as a blip minus the squawks. A transponder, when it is switched on is like the aircraft wearing a name tag to say this is who I am. Without the transponder/name tag on, it will appear as a blip just like any other aircraft on the radar screen. And if the emergency switch is on, four squawks will appear behind the blip to indicate an aircraft having an emergency situation.
The reason why the transponder was switched off has a purpose if one is knowledgeable about how the radar works. A Keith Ledgerwood wrote about a theory of radar evasion only those who are in the business would know. Let me explain this theory. All commercial aircraft are expected to switch on their transponders to identify themselves when they are airborne. On the radar screen you will see a blip followed by a couple of squawks or a numeral identifying the aircraft.
When two aircraft fly very close together, in formation, the radar may only see one blip for the two or more aircraft in close formation, giving the impression there is only one aircraft. Another way is to fly above or below the other and the radar, being two dimensional, will only show one blip instead of two. Get the picture? So, if MH370 were to switch off its transponder and fly beneath another aircraft, the radar will pick up one aircraft and one transponder signal. And MH370 could fly under the shadow of another aircraft without being detected.
According to Keith Ledgerwood, there was a flight SQ68 flying from Singapore, passing Penang and onwards over India, Pakistan to Europe. MH370 could intercept SQ68 and fly beneath it to conceal its presence to the radar controllers and break away somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan towards central Asia and no one will know anything amissed.
And the westerly path taken by MH370 to Penang then starboard on a northwesterly direction fits this theory. And MH370 could be in central Asia.
The unexplained and questionable part of this theory was the path of MH370 towards Penang evident to radar and its subsequent flight under SQ68 would also be seen by radar. This defeats its intent to hide its presence and radar controller could see what it was doing. If it could avoid the Butterworth radar altogether by flying 280, it might be able to sneak under SQ68 undetected, then it makes sense.
So, this theory requires expertise knowledge of radar operations and radar coverage in the area. The flaw is that MH370 flew into radar cover and was seen and tracked, which made a fool of what it was doing. If its intent was to hide, why showed its face to everyone?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Another ridiculous search into nowhere
Australia is claiming to be searching the ocean to the southwest of Perth. Now where on earth is that place? It may be trying to cover all corners on earth but let’s be reasonable, is there any reason why the pilot would want to fly MH370 to that corner of the Indian Ocean?
Heading towards the Maldives or Mauritius has a logical explanation. There are islands and landing strips to put the aircraft down. Why fly to nowhere to ditch? If the intention of the pilot is to ditch the aircraft, it can ditch anywhere in the South China Sea or nearby in the Indian Ocean. Why ditching in a corner of the earth as good as God knows where?
Maybe the pilot wanted to bury himself and everyone in a watery grave that cannot be found. Logical?
Common Australia, do something logical and fruitful. This is worse than a wild goose chase. It is idiotic and a waste of time and resources. Are they thinking and knowing what they are doing?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH 370 – All the false theories
An article in the internet reported on several of theories that have been circulating in the media. I have listed them down and discredit most of them as spurious and not sensible.
1. SOURCE: Chris Goodfellow, who describes himself as an experienced pilot.
THE THEORY: Goodfellow has posted on Google Plus that he believed the pilot on MH370 may have been heading to the Malaysian resort island of Langkawi to land after the transponders were knocked out by a fire on board.
"The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours,'' Goodfellow wrote.
My comment: There is no urgency to make an emergency landing just because the transponder is not working unless there is a big fire. If that is the case, the pilot would have all the time in the world to make his emergency calls, switch on the emergency squawks, and the passengers too would be able to make some calls out. This is obviously false.
2. SOURCE: Desmond Ross, an Australian commercial pilot and aviation security expert.
THE THEORY: Captain Ross offers a similar theory to Goodfellow's. He said the aircraft might have depressurised for some reason, possibly due to an explosion causing a hole in the fuselage.
"The pilots quickly recognise the need to descend,'' said Captain Ross, who conducted a security review of Kuala Lumpur's international airport in 2005.
My comment: False. Same as above.
3. SOURCE: Keith Ledgerwood, who described himself as a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast from the US.
THE THEORY: This theory was based on the premise that someone hijacked the plane.
Ledgerwood said MH370 could have switched off its radar, then "shadowed" another plane - Singapore Airlines flight number 68 en route from Singapore to Barcelona - before landing north of India or Afghanistan.
"It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace," wrote Ledgerwood on Tumblr.
My comment: Sound logical and possible. But the part when the pilot, supposedly trying so hard to avoid detection but flew into radar zones to be seen by everyone makes this theory a suspect. On the one hand the pilot wanted to hide but then exposed himself naked for all to see.
4. SOURCE: Described in The Independent newspaper.
THE THEORY: The plane may have been hijacked and flown to a Taliban base.
The Independent has reported that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown under the radar to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that were not under government control.
My comment: No aircraft can fly through India and Pakistan without being picked up on radars.
5. SOURCE: Investigators
THE THEORY: Authorities were investigating whether pilot or passenger suicide could explain the plane's disappearance.
There was a historical precedent for this.
6. SOURCE: An email to journalists claiming to be from the Chinese Martyrs' Brigade.
THE THEORY: A shadowy group called the Chinese Martyrs' Brigade claimed responsibility for the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in an email to journalists in China.
The encrypted email read: ''You kill one of our clan, we will kill 100 of you as pay back.''
My comment: Too little to work on. Probably a hoax. If it is real, there would be followup comments and claims of victory or success.
7. SOURCE: Malaysian police were said to be investigating this theory.
THE THEORY: An explosive may have been hidden in the plane's huge cargo of exotic fruit.
Malaysian officials have said that the only cargo on MH370 was a load of mangosteens, a fruit popular in south-east Asia.
Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said that "three to four tonnes" of mangosteens were on the aircraft
My comment: Possible to have explosives smuggled into the cargo haul. But where is the explosion? No signs of any so far. No wreckages, no debris, no black box signals.
8. My Theory. Aircraft was hijacked by a professional team of experts and flown to some uninhabited or sparsely inhabited islands like those in the southern Philppines. Gan Island is also a possibility as it has an airstrip and not heavily populated. A gag order could be imposed on the islanders not to tell the world. In the case of the Philippines, the pilot would have to ditch the aircraft in the coastal seas. So far the black boxes have been silent. And so were the passengers.
On the other hand, the whole thing could be a very simple and baffling incident like the aircraft landed somewhere in a Malaysian state. But of course everyone on board is either dead or over powered and cannot make contact with the world.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Calling the bluff

We are now on the 12th day of the MH370 disappearance and no one is wiser. What is funny is that everyone seems to have seen the aircraft either on radar screen or with their naked eyes. The latest ruse came all the way from Maldives where some islanders were swearing that they saw a low flying aircraft in the MAS colours of red and white. Of course it is now confirmed that it was another imagination of the people eager to locate the aircraft.

There are still many bluffs hanging in the air. If one is to look at the effective range of a long range surveillance radar, the radar at KLIA cannot see the aircraft from where it was reported missing unless they locate the radar on top of the mountain range in central peninsula. Neither can the Thai military or civilian radar see the aircraft at the same location. Both sightings can be ignored as spurious and red herrings.

The only possibility for Malaysian and Thai military radars to see MH370 is for their radars to be located near the east coast of the Thai Malaysian border. Did the Malaysians have any military radar there when they kept quoting KLIA? Did the Thais have any military radar in the Pattani region? If both answers are no, then, like a judge in a court would to say, please ignore all radar sightings of MH370 claimed by the Thais and the Malaysians in that area.

The sightings nearer to Butterworth and in the Straits of Malacca are within the range of Butterworth military radar. It is credible but the information given has to be reliable and not another cooked up story or imagination. The Thais are unlikely to see anything in the Straits of Malacca except those that came within the range of air traffic radar in Phuket. All must remember that the Malaysian govt has not confirmed anything but said the radar blips could be MH370. It could be anything else.

The claimed sightings in the Maldives are likely to be a case of putting 1 and 1 together to get 2. In the case of MH370 landing at the Maldives, it could fly like a normal civilian aircraft at normal height without anyone knowing there was something unusual as long as the air traffickers are under the command and control of the hijacking team. There was no need to fly low level except to make a landing in a remote airfield. Gan comes to mind as it is at a small island at the tip of an atoll and could easily be isolated and concealed or the aircraft kept out of sight of the islanders.

We have ruled out a crash or an explosion after the first few days of search. Now we can rule out the radar sightings in the north eastern cost of peninsula Malaysia. The last clue, if real, was the sighting around Pulau Perak heading northwest. If this is eventually proven to be false, we are back to square one and the last quarter that has been ruled out is east of the South China Sea.

Hope they could find something in the Maldives or Mauritius, or even central Asia. This jigsaw puzzle is still missing a lot of pieces and no clear picture has taken shape.

What the authorities should be doing now is not to search for a crash site but a landing sight. The probability of the aircraft being hijacked is now very high. They should be thinking like the hijackers and looking at possible landing sites be it on land or in the sea where the aircraft could ditch safely. It is obvious that the hijackers are not going to kill themselves or the passengers. Where would they bring their aircraft to should be the starting point for this phase of search. The Australians searching near the Antartic is simply unthinking. They are still thinking or a reckless crashing of the aircraft.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Abbot called Najib to report on rubbish found in the sea
Australian PM Abbot found it important enough to call Najib to inform him of some floating rubbish he found in the sea and had satellite pictures of it. And the Australian govt also found it so important to call a press conference on the discovery. Unbelieveable.
I am putting my neck out on this, that the area being search by the Australians would be the last place for the plane to be in. Using the logic of a reasonable man and all the facts available till now, MH370 cannot be in that region.
Why would the pilot make all the clever manoeuvres to evade radars just to fly the aircraft into the Antartics and ditch the plane there? It is effort all for nothing. If they wanted to ditch the aircraft, it could be done easier in any part of the South China Sea. And if the plane has ditched in the water, the black boxes would be beeping and this would be picked up by the satellites long ago, or by the Aussie planes in the area.
The fact that the hijacked aircraft was flown from where it was means that they wanted to bring it to a place of their own choosing. And they are not going to dump it anywhere. There are 239 lives on board, including the hijackers, and could be more. So far there has been no indication of the hijackers intending to kill themselves or the passengers.
To find the aircraft in the Antartics would be the most baffling thing and defy all reasons and logics. Still I can be logically wrong. Yes I can be logically wrong and cannot rule this slim possibility out.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 – Australian sighted debris

I had this very bad feeling that the two pieces of debris reported by Australia are parts of MH370. I hope they are not as there is no reason for MH370 to be there. The distance is beyond its fuel range even if it was to fly straight through Singapore to the spot. The plane could not fly through Singapore and Indonesia without being picked up on radars. The only way was to fly through the north of Sumatra and that would make the distance even further. It would thus need to make a stopover, refuelled and continued to the location. It definitely could not make it directly. The 12 days could explain this mystery. And very likely no passengers were found among the wreckage.

There would be many questions to be asked as the Antartica was the last place anyone would think the aircraft would be, and why would they want to fly to crash in a remote corner of the deep ocean? The aircraft deliberately evaded all the radar stations and it is simply meaningless to want to do all the manoeuvres only to crash into a corner of the Indian Ocean away from civilisation. And it is also very strange, sheer coincidence that the Australians thought it could be there and found it so quickly.

Then there are questions like why weren’t the black boxes beeping? Given the time lapse, could the aircraft actually be flown somewhere first, got its black boxes stripped, passengers off loaded and then flown there to crash into the ocean? Because of the depth of the ocean at that spot, recovering it would be impossible and would be abandoned. Who would want to do it and pay for it? No one would know that the black boxes were already removed from the aircraft.

For the pilot/crew to fly and ditch the aircraft, they must then be picked up by another aircraft or ship to bring them to safety. After successfully pulling off such a stunt there was no need for them to die there.

The whole episode of the hijack was so meticulously executed and now another piece of well planned evacuation of the pilot/crew that could only be done with great resources. It is not a simple piece of terrorist work. It is a very difficult thing to do to fly from where it disappeared to where the debris appeared, assuming it is the aircraft. The mastermind must have great expertise, technological knowhow, manpower and hardware like ships and aircraft at his disposal to get this job done. It is mind boggling to think through the whole process.

The eagerness of the Aussie PM to call Najib and the media conference said that they knew something already even before any confirmation by the lab. This is the Freudian slip.

Anyone thinking of conspiracy theory? I already have an outlined of how Hollywood would have scripted it. The big question is, what is the motive or what is it all about? Would they spare the lives of the passengers while trying to get what they want?

PS. The possibility of it flying through Singapore, say to Australia, is to file a flight plan ahead, disappeared from radar cover at the edge of KLIA radar cover, change the transponder code, reappear in the civilian flight corridor like any legitimate aircraft with the transponder squawking a new identity. No air trafficker would know anything unusual. The truth could be more dramatic than fiction.
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redbean



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MH370 - The 10 ‘NOs’ that tell a story
This is a summary of the 10 NOs we know of the missing MH370.
1. The pilot did not make an emergency call.
2. The pilot did not switch on the emergency squawk.
3. There is no radar contact or no confirmation of radar contacts but only believed to be seen on radars.
4. There is no visual sighting of the aircraft.
5. There is no mobile phone call/message from the passengers.
6. There is no sign of wreckage or debris, no explosion.
7. There is no signal from the black boxes.
8. There is no claim of responsibility by any terrorist groups.
9. There is no demand for ransoms or negotiation.
10. There is no news of the aircraft’s where about.
The above may be NOs but they also tell us a lot of things about what happened. Every NO is saying something. Piece them together it gives a picture of what had possibly happened and even said that the passengers are likely to be still alive. But if the silence goes on for another couple of weeks, then things will look really ugly. At this point, no news is still good news and keep the fingers crossed that whoever had taken the aircraft and its passengers would be contacting the authorities soon. Maybe they had already done so.
Now the answers to all the 10 NOs, ‘WE ARE IN CONTROL.’
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