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OCBC Reports March 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KEY IDEA

Ezion Holdings: Secures service rig contract with good ROE
Ezion Holdings (Ezion) announced that it has secured a charter contract worth about US$48.2m over a three year period to provide a service rig for an international oil and gas major for work in the Arabian Gulf. The unit will be deployed before end 2013 after refurbishment and upgrading in a Middle Eastern yard. We estimate a good ROE of slightly more than 55% for this project, vs a forecasted ROE of 22% for Ezion in FY13. Ezion’s stock price has appreciated by about 18% YTD vs the STI’s 3% rise over the same period. However, we still see an upside potential of more than 15% over a one-year time frame. We tweak our earnings estimates, and based on 12x blended FY13/14F core earnings, our fair value estimate rises from S$2.33 to S$2.35. Maintain BUY. (Low Pei Han)

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KSH Holdings: Placement exercise to raise S$13.9m
KSH recently conducted a placement for 30.9m new shares and 4.1m existing treasury shares at 40.8 S-cents per share. This was at a 5.2% discount to the weighted average traded price of 43.0 S-cents on 11 Mar 2013 and raised S$13.9m of capital for the group. Shortly after the placement, KSH deployed S$1.9m to increase its stake in its Beijing condominium project (Liang Jing Ming Ju, Phase 4) from 26.24% to 45.00%. Pending further visibility on capital deployment, we are overall neutral on this placement but note it would increase the size of the public float and possibly improve the counter’s trading liquidity, which has been low historically. Maintain BUY on KSH. Our fair value estimate dips mildly to S$0.61 from S$0.62, due to a mild dilution effect, but our forecast for buoyant earnings growth over FY13-14 remains unchanged. (Eli Lee)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KEY IDEA

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Second disposal attempt

Summary: Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) announced last Friday that it has entered into an option to purchase agreement for the divestment of 30 Woodlands Loop in Singapore at a sale price of S$15.5m. This represents a significant premium to its purchase price of S$10.3m in 2007 and its valuation price of S$11.0m in Mar 2012. The divestment is expected to be completed by May, and is expected to generate a net disposal gain of ~S$5.0m, which will be distributed to unitholders (subject to clarification on tax treatment). We re-jig our forecasts to take into account the divestment and the potential distribution of the net disposal gains in FY14. However, our fair value remains unchanged at S$1.25. We maintain our BUY rating on MLT. (Kevin Tan)

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Raffles Medical Group: What’s next after another setback?

Summary: Raffles Medical Group (RMG) announced last Friday that its resubmission for the change of use of its commercial podium at 30 Bideford Road to a medical centre had been unsuccessful. This is the second setback faced by RMG in as many weeks as it had only recently lost out on a land tender for the development of a private hospital in Hong Kong. Management could now possibly seek to sell the property, retain it for rental purposes, or keep it for partial use and partial rental. Meanwhile, we expect RMG to continue to grow its Singapore business and to step up its negotiation efforts with regards to its recent non-binding Letter of Intent for a proposed integrated international hospital development in Shenzhen, China. Maintain HOLD on RMG, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.01. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KEY IDEA

UE E&C: Healthy pipeline of projects
We met the management of UE E&C last week for an update. Despite the labour crunch in the construction industry and the cooling measures introduced by the government, management remains upbeat. The group has implemented productivity enhancement measures and adopted new technologies to facilitate work processes to help mitigate the tighter manpower constraints and rising costs. Meanwhile, the group has an estimated order-book of S$600-800m, anchored by four key residential developments: Austville EC, Watercolours EC, Prince Charles Crescent and the new Punggol EC. We now roll forward our estimate to FY13F and incorporate projections for the new Punggol EC project. This increases our SOTP fair value to S$0.82 (previously S$0.6Cool. Upgrade to BUY. (Chia Jiunyang)

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Global Palm: HOLD with lower S$0.17 FV
Global Palm Resources (GPR) continues to see a rise in its inventory of CPO (crude palm oil), this time more than doubling to 7.7k tonnes from 3.4k tonnes at end 3Q12 (also up 19% YoY). And with the continued high production of CPO (which is likely to continue into Mar as company expects FFB production to increase some 11% this year), GPR may see its stock pile inching even higher going into 2Q13. Meanwhile, new planting has been slow – GPR only added 331k ha last year – and plans to plan 300-400ha this year, citing tough negotiations with the local population. Recent FY12 results were slightly disappointing – GPR reported a net loss of IDR39.8b; but if we strip out the bio-asset fair value losses, core earnings would have come in at IDR51.5b, or 10% below our forecast. In view of the still muted outlook for CPO, we cut our FY14 forecast for revenue by 13% and core earnings by 12%; this also brings our fair value down from S$0.19 to S$0.17, still based on 10x FY13F EPS. Maintain HOLD. (Carey Wong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KEY IDEA

Neptune Orient Lines: Turnaround still intact
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index has exhibited relative stability since the start of the year, and this should provide a good base for upcoming generate rate increases such as those enacted under the TSA for Apr. Although there is a possibility of a supply outpacing demand, several liners have expressed confidence in the resilience of rates this year and continue to push through GRIs beyond Apr. Nonetheless, the major liners acknowledge potential threats to profitability and have reiterated the need for the industry to strike a balance between competition and sustainability. Although some liners have taken heed – such as the G6 and CKYH alliances who have cancelled their planned Asia-Europe service launches this year – there remains some routes that are particularly susceptible to rate fluctuations, and we adjusted our estimates downwards for NOL accordingly. Regardless of this adjustment, our view on NOL’s turnaround in FY13 remains intact and we maintain our BUY rating with a fair value of S$1.38. (Lim Siyi)

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OKP Holdings: Revenue visibility but margin compression
To recap, 4Q12/FY12 results were generally in line with our expectations. While FY12 net income of S$104.5m (-5% YoY) was 5% lower than our estimate, PATMI of S$12.4m (-53% YoY) was 6% higher than what we expected. The lacklustre results were due to a weak economy, price competition and climbing labour costs. OKP declared a first and final dividend of 1.5 S cents/share, lower than the 2 S cents that we and the street had expected. FY12 dividend translates into a yield of 2.9%. We believe that management is conserving cash to increase its flexibility to tender for government projects. Following a change in analyst, we have adjusted our forecasts for OKP’s FY13 and FY14 performance. Applying a P/E multiple of 11x to FY13F EPS, we derive a FV of S$0.48/share, slightly higher than our previous FV of S$0.46/share. We maintain our HOLDrating on OKP. (Sarah Ong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

KEY IDEA

Oil and Gas sector: Takeaways from IHS Petrodata’s seminar
We recently attended IHS Petrodata’s seminar on the offshore oil and gas sector, and came away feeling positive on prospects of selected sub-segments of the industry. For the deepwater drilling market, day rates have recovered to 2008 levels, especially the ultra-deepwater segment. Rates for harsh-environment rigs have also been climbing. 2013 is also expected to see the development of more global oil and gas field projects, while sentiment on the OSV market has generally improved. In particular, average earned day rates in Asia Pacific are showing signs of an upturn, especially for AHTS vessels smaller than 6,000BHP in Indonesia and Malaysia. Maintain Overweight on the broader oil and gas sector, with Ezion Holdings [BUY, FV: S$2.33], Keppel Corporation [BUY, FV: S$12.68], Sembcorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$5.84], and Nam Cheong [BUY, FV: S$0.30] as our preferred picks. (Low Pei Han, Chia Jiunyang)

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Yoma Strategic Holdings: Moving into luxury tourism
Yoma Strategic Holdings (Yoma) reported that it would take a 70% stake in Chindwin Holdings which would acquire several connected tourism assets. First, Chindwin would acquire 75% of a balloon tour company “Balloons over Bagan (BOB)” for US$10.7m. BOB is the only hot air balloon operator in Myanmar and has had a profitable track record since it began operations 13 years ago. We understand that this acquisition price translates to a forward PE multiple of 6 to 8 times. In addition, Chindwin would acquire a 75% stake in 21.2 acres of land in Bagan for US$3.75m. This acquisition is conditional on the present owner converting the existing land-rights to allow for the construction and operation of a hotel business. Overall we see these acquisitions to be positive and allows Yoma to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for luxury tourism in Myanmar. While we believe the company holds meaningful franchise value as a leading developer in Myanmar, most positives are likely priced in at current prices. Maintain SELL with a 12-month fair value estimate of S$0.71 (20% premium to RNAV). (Eli Lee)

Keppel Corporation: Good demand from Mexico; secures four more jack-ups
Keppel Corporation (KEP) announced that it has secured contracts to build four jackup rigs worth US$820m for Mexican drilling company, Grupo R. The rigs will be built to KEP’s proprietary KFELS B Class design and are scheduled for delivery progressively from 2Q15 to 4Q15. Recall that KEP also secured contracts to build two similar rigs for PEMEX in Dec last year for US$420m. As mentioned in our earlier notes, the strong demand coming from Mexico is within our expectations, as PEMEX plans annual capital expenditures of ~US$30b till 2019 to stem the country’s declining oil production. We see KEP as one of the beneficiaries of these developments. The group has secured new O&M orders worth about S$1.6b YTD, accounting for ~32% of our full year estimate. Maintain BUY with S$12.68 fair value estimate on KEP. (Low Pei Han)

Nam Cheong Ltd: US$72m contract for six vessels
Nam Cheong Ltd announced that it has sold six vessels worth a total of US$72m to two of its existing customers. Two 5,150 bhp Anchor Handling Towing Supply (AHTS) vessels are sold to Icon Offshore Berhad – one of Malaysia’s largest OSV group, while four Emergency Response and Rescue Vessels (ERRVs) will be sold to a Singapore-based company for deployment to the North Sea. The vessels are scheduled for delivery between 2Q13 and 4Q14. We currently have a BUY rating and S$0.30 fair value estimate for the counter. (Chia Jiunyang)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.
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